Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -2800 BRWN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +7 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -16.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -13.5 (-6.5) | 149.4 (+15.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -13.1 (-6.1) | 147.2 (+17.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -14.6 (-7.6) | 146.8 (+18.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -14.4 (-7.4) | 147.0 (+18.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | PROV 74 – 54 BRWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#80) | -4.0 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#101) | -1.33 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#90) | -2.04 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#91) | 0.403 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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