Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -205 FLA +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +4 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -3.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -5.8 (-1.8) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.5 (-2.5) | 136.8 (+13.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.3 (-2.3) | 139.8 (+10.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -5.1 (-1.1) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 23, 2025 | FLA 77 – 75 CONN |
| Dec 8, 2022 | CONN 75 – 54 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 20.6 (#9) | 17.0 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#6) | 1.94 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.45 (#6) | 3.35 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#9) | 0.613 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 47.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 17.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 42.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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