Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FLA +162 CONN -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +21 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -6.8 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -4.5 (-16.5) | 150.6 (-21.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.8 (-16.2) | 148.6 (-19.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -2.9 (-18.1) | 148.6 (-19.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.4 (-17.6) | 147.9 (-18.9) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | CONN 77 – 73 FLA |
| Mar 23, 2025 | FLA 77 – 75 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#48) | 21.1 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#141) | 4.48 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#125) | 6.91 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.691 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.