Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
Jenny Craig Pavilion · December 10, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread USC -14.5 Home covered
O/U 158.5 Over
Money USD +900 / USC -1600
Model Predictions
Spread Total USD win
Actual USC +13 175 Lost
Massey USC -13.7 (+0.7)
Massey Totals 167.7 (+7.3)
Bradley-Terry 2%
Weighted B-T 1%
Efficiency Plus ML USC -11.2 (-1.8) 158.5 (+16.5) 16%
Baseline Tuned ML USC -9.4 (-3.6) 156.0 (+19.0) 17%
Baseline ML USC -9.5 (-3.5) 156.2 (+18.8) 18%
Baseline Plus ML USC -9.6 (-3.4) 156.1 (+18.9) 16%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USD USC
Overall 12-21 18-14
Conference 5-13 7-13
Home 9-8 9-7
Away 2-11 5-6
Neutral 1-2 4-1
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L8
Avg Pts For 72.8 77.8
Avg Pts Against 78.8 78.4
Massey -6.9 (#279) 11.5 (#45)
Bradley-Terry -1.52 (#297) 3.12 (#18)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.87 (#283) 4.01 (#25)
RPI 0.363 (#348) 0.671 (#12)
Shooting & Four Factors USD USC
FG% 42.8% 47.8%
3PT% 30.8% 37.8%
REB / G 29.6 37.6
OREB / G 10.7 11.9
AST / TO 1.14 1.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.6% 54.6%
TOV% 18.4% 15.7%
ORB% 31.2% 34.3%
FT Rate 21.7% 37.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.0% 47.4%
Opp TOV% 20.4% 18.5%
DRB% 57.9% 66.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.0% 26.8%

Game Analysis

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