Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BALL +205 SDST -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -8.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.9 (+3.9) | 131.8 (+0.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -5.9 (+1.9) | 132.9 (-0.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.4 (+1.4) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -6.6 (+2.6) | 133.2 (-1.2) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#331) | 1.3 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#336) | -0.59 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#335) | -0.43 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.327 (#359) | 0.442 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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