What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Worthen Arena · December 10, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SDST -5.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money BALL +205 / SDST -250
Model Predictions
Spread Total BALL win
Actual SDST +4 132 Lost
Massey SDST -8.8 (+4.8)
Massey Totals 136.1 (-4.1)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 10%
Efficiency Plus ML SDST -7.9 (+3.9) 131.8 (+0.2) 18%
Baseline Tuned ML SDST -5.9 (+1.9) 132.9 (-0.9) 25%
Baseline ML SDST -5.4 (+1.4) 133.9 (-1.9) 24%
Baseline Plus ML SDST -6.6 (+2.6) 133.2 (-1.2) 22%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BALL SDST
Overall 12-19 14-18
Conference 7-11 7-9
Home 7-7 9-4
Away 4-11 4-10
Neutral 1-1 1-4
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak W4 L2
Avg Pts For 66.1 74.4
Avg Pts Against 71.4 74.5
Massey -12.2 (#331) 1.3 (#150)
Bradley-Terry -2.62 (#336) -0.59 (#223)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.75 (#335) -0.43 (#198)
RPI 0.327 (#359) 0.442 (#272)
Shooting & Four Factors BALL SDST
FG% 38.6% 43.3%
3PT% 31.1% 29.8%
REB / G 31.9 37.0
OREB / G 10.8 10.4
AST / TO 0.99 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.2% 49.4%
TOV% 18.6% 18.8%
ORB% 28.2% 29.4%
FT Rate 19.7% 26.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.9% 49.5%
Opp TOV% 20.2% 18.2%
DRB% 66.8% 77.7%
Opp FT Rate 19.6% 28.7%

Game Analysis

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