Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | HOW +130 NCAT -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -5.3 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -1.6 (+5.6) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -4.3 (+8.3) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -3.9 (+7.9) | 140.3 (+1.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -3.2 (+7.2) | 140.6 (+1.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | HOW 79 – 57 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#307) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#328) | -0.85 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#317) | -1.47 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.363 (#349) | 0.422 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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