He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
John Paul Jones Arena · December 10, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UVA -36.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVA win
Actual UVA +24 144 Won
Massey UVA -33.3 (-9.3)
Massey Totals 134.6 (+9.4)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML UVA -34.2 (-10.2) 133.1 (+10.9) 91%
Model 4 ML UVA -26.3 (-2.3) 134.8 (+9.2) 91%
Model 3 ML UVA -23.2 (+0.8) 135.3 (+8.7) 91%
Baseline ML UVA -30.3 (-6.3) 134.2 (+9.8) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 25, 2022 UVA 7245 UMES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVA UMES
Overall 30-6 9-23
Conference 15-3 5-9
Home 16-1 6-4
Away 8-2 2-18
Neutral 6-3 1-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 80.4 62.4
Avg Pts Against 68.8 71.5
Massey 15.8 (#24) -12.8 (#337)
Bradley-Terry 2.45 (#32) -1.92 (#309)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.53 (#32) -3.51 (#330)
RPI 0.588 (#54) 0.432 (#286)
Shooting & Four Factors UVA UMES
FG% 48.9% 40.6%
3PT% 39.8% 28.3%
REB / G 43.1 32.9
OREB / G 15.1 10.5
AST / TO 1.59 0.73
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.9% 45.6%
TOV% 15.7% 25.6%
ORB% 43.3% 30.9%
FT Rate 30.0% 13.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.3% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 15.6% 17.1%
DRB% 69.4% 63.1%
Opp FT Rate 27.1% 27.3%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.