Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -36.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +24 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -33.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -34.2 (-10.2) | 133.1 (+10.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UVA -26.3 (-2.3) | 134.8 (+9.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UVA -23.2 (+0.8) | 135.3 (+8.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -30.3 (-6.3) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2022 | UVA 72 – 45 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#24) | -12.8 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#32) | -1.92 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#32) | -3.51 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#54) | 0.432 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 25.6% |
| ORB% | 43.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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