Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +27 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -31.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -28.3 (-1.3) | 136.5 (-19.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -24.7 (+2.3) | 134.4 (-17.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -24.3 (+2.7) | 139.1 (-22.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -28.5 (-1.5) | 137.2 (-20.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2025 | UVA 84 – 60 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#9) | -7.6 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#8) | -1.52 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.92 (#3) | -2.46 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#39) | 0.356 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 36.2% |
| 3PT% | 46.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 46.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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