Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA +215 M-OH -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +3 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -2.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -2.5 (-0.5) | 146.7 (+30.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -1.2 (-1.8) | 147.2 (+29.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -1.3 (-1.7) | 149.9 (+27.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -1.7 (-1.3) | 148.3 (+28.7) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 32-2 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 18-0 |
| Home | 8-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 14-0 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 86.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#192) | 6.1 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#213) | 1.74 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#205) | 2.25 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#290) | 0.481 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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