Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -42.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +36 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UK -35.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -27.4 (+8.6) | 141.7 (+28.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -26.6 (+9.4) | 140.0 (+30.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -34.6 (+1.4) | 140.4 (+29.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -33.9 (+2.1) | 141.4 (+28.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-6 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#16) | -13.9 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#128) | -3.09 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#92) | -4.81 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#149) | 0.411 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 32.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 37.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.