Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -5000 MORG +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +43 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -17.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -16.4 (+26.6) | 147.7 (-6.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -14.6 (+28.4) | 144.9 (-3.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -15.6 (+27.4) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -15.6 (+27.4) | 147.1 (-6.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | -14.5 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#204) | -4.30 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#187) | -5.61 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#253) | 0.273 (#365) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 39.7% |
Game Analysis
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