All your compliments and your cutting remarks are captured here in my quotation marks. "Everyday I Write the Book" - Elvis Costello
Horizon League · The Jungle · December 11, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread IUIN -3.5 Away covered
O/U 165.5 Under
Money IUIN -148 / GB +124
Model Predictions
Spread Total IUIN win
Actual GB +10 160 Lost
Massey GB -1.1 (-8.9)
Massey Totals 177.0 (-17.0)
Bradley-Terry 44%
Weighted B-T 31%
Efficiency Plus ML IUIN -1.5 (-11.5) 152.9 (+7.1) 54%
Baseline Tuned ML GB -2.1 (-7.9) 158.5 (+1.5) 45%
Baseline ML GB -1.9 (-8.1) 159.0 (+1.0) 49%
Baseline Plus ML GB -1.7 (-8.3) 155.7 (+4.3) 43%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 10, 2026 GB 7559 IUIN
Jan 23, 2025 IUIN 8677 GB
Dec 4, 2024 IUIN 8475 GB
Feb 1, 2024 GB 7956 IUIN
Jan 10, 2024 GB 6858 IUIN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IUIN GB
Overall 7-25 18-15
Conference 3-17 12-8
Home 5-9 10-4
Away 2-15 6-9
Neutral 0-1 2-2
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L7 L1
Avg Pts For 80.9 73.9
Avg Pts Against 89.2 75.9
Massey -10.9 (#317) -5.0 (#248)
Bradley-Terry -1.71 (#302) -0.52 (#220)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.49 (#303) -0.58 (#209)
RPI 0.387 (#332) 0.507 (#164)
Shooting & Four Factors IUIN GB
FG% 44.0% 42.5%
3PT% 31.9% 29.8%
REB / G 32.4 30.4
OREB / G 11.8 7.7
AST / TO 1.45 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 48.7%
TOV% 16.5% 16.2%
ORB% 27.6% 22.8%
FT Rate 14.7% 32.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 58.8% 55.3%
Opp TOV% 20.4% 12.1%
DRB% 60.4% 70.7%
Opp FT Rate 32.3% 30.7%

Game Analysis

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