Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -625 COLG +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -7.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -10.8 (-2.8) | 143.4 (+18.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -8.1 (-0.1) | 144.3 (+17.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -8.4 (-0.4) | 145.1 (+16.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -7.8 (+0.2) | 145.7 (+16.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#109) | 1.7 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#16) | 0.08 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#20) | 0.31 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.684 (#7) | 0.524 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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