Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -520 BRY +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -13.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -7.8 (-1.8) | 146.3 (-14.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -11.0 (-5.0) | 141.8 (-9.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -11.8 (-5.8) | 140.3 (-8.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -11.9 (-5.9) | 143.0 (-11.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#161) | -7.9 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#151) | -2.04 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#155) | -3.06 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#186) | 0.431 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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