Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | BU -455 ME +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -11.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -8.1 (-18.1) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -7.3 (-17.3) | 129.9 (-1.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -10.5 (-20.5) | 131.8 (-3.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -8.9 (-18.9) | 134.4 (-6.4) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2024 | BU 59 – 56 ME |
| Dec 7, 2023 | ME 74 – 65 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#233) | -10.1 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#254) | -3.71 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#300) | -4.94 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#249) | 0.387 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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