Betting Lines
| Spread | ME -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | BU +130 ME -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -4.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -3.4 (-12.4) | 128.7 (+10.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -2.4 (-11.4) | 131.3 (+7.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -3.9 (-12.9) | 129.6 (+9.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -3.0 (-12.0) | 128.7 (+10.3) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | ME 69 – 59 BU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | BU 59 – 56 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-10 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#210) | -0.5 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#192) | -0.37 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#161) | -0.57 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#246) | 0.446 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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