Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | USF -1450 COFC +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | USF -18.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -18.4 (-12.4) | 151.3 (+4.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USF -12.9 (-6.9) | 152.9 (+3.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USF -16.7 (-10.7) | 152.8 (+3.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -17.9 (-11.9) | 152.3 (+3.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | COFC 86 – 71 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#49) | -3.1 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#79) | -0.82 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#66) | -0.98 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#62) | 0.476 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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