Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -1350 DUQ +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -17.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -17.2 (+4.8) | 143.9 (+6.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -14.1 (+7.9) | 144.2 (+5.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -14.2 (+7.8) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -16.1 (+5.9) | 145.4 (+4.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#42) | -0.5 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#53) | -0.08 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#44) | -0.10 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#39) | 0.473 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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