Betting Lines
| Spread | BC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | BC -115 MASS -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +2 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | BC -0.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -0.9 (-2.9) | 135.0 (+15.0) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -0.5 (-2.5) | 132.3 (+17.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BC -0.5 (-2.5) | 134.1 (+15.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -0.6 (-2.6) | 137.4 (+12.6) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#174) | -1.1 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#216) | -0.60 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#194) | -0.81 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#228) | 0.437 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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