Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SYR -850 JOES +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -20.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -12.4 (-4.4) | 146.2 (-12.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -15.5 (-7.5) | 141.7 (-7.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -16.2 (-8.2) | 141.9 (-7.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -18.4 (-10.4) | 143.7 (-9.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#72) | -6.8 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#79) | -0.16 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#71) | -0.97 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#124) | 0.482 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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