Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | ELON -700 NIU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ELON +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ELON -16.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -12.4 (-6.4) | 147.1 (+16.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -12.2 (-6.2) | 152.5 (+11.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -12.8 (-6.8) | 153.8 (+10.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -13.9 (-7.9) | 151.7 (+12.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2024 | ELON 75 – 48 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#151) | -10.8 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#158) | -1.38 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#159) | -1.92 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#186) | 0.423 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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