Betting Lines
| Spread | LIU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LIU -148 LAS +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIU +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | LIU -7.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIU -4.1 (+5.9) | 142.0 (-12.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIU -6.0 (+4.0) | 139.6 (-9.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIU -6.3 (+3.7) | 139.4 (-9.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIU -5.8 (+4.2) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#210) | -6.0 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#162) | -1.36 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#173) | -1.88 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#152) | 0.417 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIU | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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