Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -205 MUR +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +15 | 215 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -7.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.6 (+36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -10.3 (-25.3) | 169.5 (+45.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -9.0 (-24.0) | 164.9 (+50.1) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -8.7 (-23.7) | 166.9 (+48.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -9.9 (-24.9) | 169.8 (+45.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#34) | 6.2 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#46) | 0.75 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#57) | 0.63 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#42) | 0.485 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.2% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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