Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA +142 STMN -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +21 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -1.8 (-22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.9 (-21.9) | 142.9 (-3.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.5 (-23.5) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -2.0 (-23.0) | 143.5 (-4.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -2.0 (-23.0) | 143.4 (-4.4) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | 1.8 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#220) | 0.42 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#207) | 0.31 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#281) | 0.516 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.