Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +150 ETSU -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +1 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -0.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.6 (+2.6) | 138.2 (+12.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -1.0 (+0.0) | 137.1 (+13.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -0.3 (+0.7) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -1.1 (-0.1) | 137.9 (+13.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | ETSU 79 – 57 APSU |
| Nov 26, 2020 | APSU 67 – 66 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#129) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#196) | 1.07 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#186) | 1.13 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#181) | 0.542 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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