Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -450 APSU +345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -8.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -8.4 (+13.6) | 131.3 (+4.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -7.0 (+15.0) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -6.6 (+15.4) | 134.0 (+2.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -8.4 (+13.6) | 132.9 (+3.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | APSU 76 – 75 ETSU |
| Nov 26, 2020 | APSU 67 – 66 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#134) | -0.5 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#201) | 0.82 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#152) | 0.45 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#212) | 0.573 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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