Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | RMU +102 TOL -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RMU +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | RMU -2.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RMU -4.0 (+1.0) | 143.5 (+1.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RMU -4.0 (+1.0) | 148.2 (-3.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RMU -3.6 (+1.4) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RMU -3.5 (+1.5) | 148.3 (-3.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#177) | 1.5 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#145) | 0.40 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#132) | 0.57 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.518 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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