Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ND -1650 EVAN +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +24 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | ND -20.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -17.2 (+6.8) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -17.3 (+6.7) | 141.2 (-1.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -19.4 (+4.6) | 141.9 (-1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -19.0 (+5.0) | 140.7 (-0.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#75) | -7.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#58) | -1.31 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#58) | -1.78 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#53) | 0.445 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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