Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BRY +114 MRST -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +8 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -3.3 (-4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.5 (+39.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -2.1 (-5.9) | 128.0 (+28.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BRY -0.1 (-8.1) | 128.7 (+27.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | MRST -2.4 (-5.6) | 123.3 (+32.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -2.0 (-6.0) | 125.1 (+30.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 1-17 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 63.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#287) | 0.7 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#318) | -0.59 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.98 (#320) | -0.55 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#289) | 0.464 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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