Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -2800 UTC +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +14 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -22.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -17.6 (-3.6) | 151.4 (+18.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -19.9 (-5.9) | 149.6 (+20.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -21.2 (-7.2) | 149.7 (+20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -20.7 (-6.7) | 147.9 (+22.1) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2023 | AUB 101 – 66 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#36) | -9.0 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#32) | -1.59 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#22) | -1.95 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#26) | 0.382 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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