Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -4500 SPU +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -16.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -14.1 (-6.1) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -11.3 (-3.3) | 140.4 (+3.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -11.7 (-3.7) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -10.5 (-2.5) | 142.4 (+1.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | -9.3 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#82) | -1.82 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#81) | -3.41 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#125) | 0.402 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.92 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 37.7% |
Game Analysis
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