Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +170 UNCW -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +3 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -3.1 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.9 (-0.1) | 134.2 (+8.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.7 (-1.3) | 134.3 (+8.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -2.4 (-0.6) | 135.0 (+8.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -2.5 (-0.5) | 134.5 (+8.5) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#235) | 3.9 (#119) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#271) | 1.25 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#264) | 0.87 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#318) | 0.543 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 39.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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