Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USD -218 NAU +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | USD -2.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -2.0 (+7.0) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -2.2 (+6.8) | 140.9 (+6.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -2.0 (+7.0) | 141.9 (+5.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -2.5 (+6.5) | 143.9 (+3.1) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2021 | USD 69 – 59 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#276) | -4.5 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#298) | -1.11 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#282) | -1.41 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#331) | 0.456 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 59.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.