We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
59 69
FINAL Neutral Jerry Colangelo Classic
San Diego Toreros
Mortgage Matchup Center (Neutral) · December 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread USD -4.0 Away covered
O/U 126.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual USD +10 128 Lost
Massey USD -6.6 (-3.4)
Massey Totals 129.5 (-1.5)
Bradley-Terry 36%
Weighted B-T 21%
Efficiency Plus ML USD -3.9 (-6.1) 131.2 (-3.2) 41%
Baseline Tuned ML USD -3.3 (-6.7) 132.9 (-4.9) 42%
Baseline ML USD -2.7 (-7.3) 132.7 (-4.7) 45%
Baseline Plus ML USD -2.4 (-7.6) 131.0 (-3.0) 41%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 13, 2025 USD 7869 NAU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU USD
Overall 9-23 15-16
Conference 5-15 7-9
Home 5-10 8-6
Away 3-11 4-8
Neutral 1-2 3-2
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L8 L1
Avg Pts For 65.4 63.9
Avg Pts Against 74.8 68.7
Massey -7.0 (#289) -0.4 (#189)
Bradley-Terry -0.96 (#254) -0.38 (#215)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.13 (#249) 0.18 (#173)
RPI 0.446 (#264) 0.456 (#251)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU USD
FG% 40.6% 43.0%
3PT% 33.7% 37.1%
REB / G 38.1 34.4
OREB / G 10.4 8.6
AST / TO 0.73 0.72
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 48.3%
TOV% 23.1% 20.4%
ORB% 29.1% 25.8%
FT Rate 27.0% 17.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.0% 45.4%
Opp TOV% 13.4% 16.0%
DRB% 74.8% 74.4%
Opp FT Rate 28.6% 14.7%

Game Analysis

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