Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT -380 UMES +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -11.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -8.9 (-5.9) | 132.2 (+28.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -7.4 (-4.4) | 132.7 (+28.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -7.3 (-4.3) | 131.9 (+29.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -9.1 (-6.1) | 132.3 (+28.7) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-9 |
| Home | 6-6 | 6-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#260) | -12.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#308) | -2.00 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.85 (#317) | -3.66 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#328) | 0.444 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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