Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -2100 NWST +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -24.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -18.3 (-9.3) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -19.6 (-10.6) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -21.6 (-12.6) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -24.3 (-15.3) | 144.7 (+4.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | CAL 84 – 66 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-14 |
| Home | 17-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#70) | -10.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#39) | -1.90 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#46) | -2.32 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#35) | 0.398 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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