Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -1000 MERC +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +33 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -13.1 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -11.7 (+21.3) | 133.8 (-6.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | DAV -12.2 (+20.8) | 131.8 (-4.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | DAV -9.9 (+23.1) | 134.6 (-7.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -11.5 (+21.5) | 134.1 (-7.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#147) | -6.9 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#84) | -2.03 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#92) | -3.11 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#99) | 0.414 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 39.1% |
Game Analysis
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