Betting Lines
| Spread | M-OH -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | EKU +205 M-OH -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | M-OH +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | M-OH -7.9 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | M-OH -5.6 (-4.4) | 157.1 (-9.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | M-OH -5.7 (-4.3) | 155.9 (-7.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | M-OH -6.0 (-4.0) | 156.0 (-8.0) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | M-OH -7.0 (-3.0) | 156.3 (-8.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 32-2 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 18-0 |
| Home | 8-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 3-13 | 14-0 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 86.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#271) | 6.2 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#302) | 2.31 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#296) | 2.94 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#223) | 0.498 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 78.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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