Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | DEN -185 CSUF +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +19 | 191 | Lost |
| Massey | DEN -5.2 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 179.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -5.2 (-24.2) | 158.0 (+33.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -2.9 (-21.9) | 162.4 (+28.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEN -3.5 (-22.5) | 164.6 (+26.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -3.6 (-22.6) | 161.1 (+29.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | CSUF 74 – 59 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -3.8 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#171) | -1.07 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#213) | -0.99 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#158) | 0.460 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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