Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF -165 DEN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -4.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -3.0 (+12.0) | 136.0 (-3.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -3.6 (+11.4) | 137.0 (-4.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -3.8 (+11.2) | 137.3 (-4.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -4.1 (+10.9) | 138.4 (-5.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | CSUF 105 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 5-11 |
| Home | 4-11 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-15 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#300) | -7.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#281) | -1.19 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#296) | -3.19 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#237) | 0.409 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 24.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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