Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -395 OAK +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -8.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -9.0 (+3.0) | 146.2 (-8.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -7.8 (+4.2) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -7.3 (+4.7) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -7.3 (+4.7) | 148.1 (-10.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.5 | 82.8 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#95) | 2.1 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#116) | 1.13 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#123) | 1.23 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#96) | 0.601 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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