Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +42 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -22.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -24.8 (+17.2) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -20.0 (+22.0) | 139.3 (+16.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -22.2 (+19.8) | 140.0 (+16.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -23.1 (+18.9) | 139.7 (+16.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-3 | 9-11 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#26) | -2.7 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#22) | -0.54 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#27) | -0.89 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#29) | 0.483 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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