Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -35.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +25 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -36.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -25.2 (-0.2) | 155.4 (+27.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -25.4 (-0.4) | 149.2 (+33.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -32.1 (-7.1) | 148.1 (+34.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -33.2 (-8.2) | 148.8 (+34.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 15-3 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-2 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 85.4 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#18) | -15.0 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#52) | -3.17 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#51) | -4.41 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#74) | 0.306 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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