Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -1200 UCD +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +42 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -2.7 (+39.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -6.0 (+36.0) | 140.8 (+25.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -2.7 (+39.3) | 141.9 (+24.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -1.7 (+40.3) | 142.8 (+23.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -2.9 (+39.1) | 141.3 (+24.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#164) | 2.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#173) | 0.96 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#165) | 1.45 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#130) | 0.568 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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