We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
American Airlines Center (Neutral) · December 13, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TTU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Money ARK +120 / TTU -142
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARK win
Actual ARK +7 179 Won
Massey TTU -0.3 (+7.3)
Massey Totals 149.7 (+29.3)
Bradley-Terry 43%
Weighted B-T 53%
Baseline Plus ML ARK -2.3 (+4.7) 150.6 (+28.4) 53%
Model 4 ML ARK -0.5 (+6.5) 152.0 (+27.0) 41%
Model 3 ML ARK -1.8 (+5.2) 143.2 (+35.8) 58%
Baseline ML ARK -1.6 (+5.4) 146.6 (+32.4) 55%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 28, 2025 TTU 8583 ARK
Mar 21, 2021 ARK 6866 TTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARK TTU
Overall 28-9 23-11
Conference 13-5 12-6
Home 17-1 14-2
Away 5-5 5-5
Neutral 6-3 4-4
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 90.2 80.3
Avg Pts Against 81.0 73.1
Massey 15.8 (#24) 16.1 (#23)
Bradley-Terry 2.48 (#28) 2.77 (#23)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.19 (#23) 4.05 (#25)
RPI 0.600 (#47) 0.675 (#9)
Shooting & Four Factors ARK TTU
FG% 47.4% 44.3%
3PT% 35.5% 36.5%
REB / G 38.9 40.3
OREB / G 10.9 14.7
AST / TO 1.82 1.45
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.2% 52.6%
TOV% 12.9% 15.7%
ORB% 30.9% 37.2%
FT Rate 29.8% 22.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 17.6%
DRB% 70.4% 71.3%
Opp FT Rate 17.3% 21.2%

Game Analysis

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