Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -575 PITT +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +18 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -14.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -13.1 (+4.9) | 137.3 (+2.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -11.6 (+6.4) | 135.8 (+4.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -15.5 (+2.5) | 136.0 (+4.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -13.5 (+4.5) | 137.2 (+2.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-10 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#48) | 1.6 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#63) | -0.03 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#62) | -0.14 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#44) | 0.512 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 40.3% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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