Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -2100 MEM +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +26 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -20.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -15.0 (+11.0) | 157.2 (+14.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -19.0 (+7.0) | 152.2 (+19.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -20.2 (+5.8) | 151.2 (+20.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -21.2 (+4.8) | 154.2 (+17.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 21.2 (#8) | 5.2 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#30) | 0.20 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#31) | 0.46 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#40) | 0.532 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 43.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 14.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.