Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MORG -135 NIA +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -2.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -1.9 (+6.1) | 131.4 (+22.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -0.6 (+7.4) | 132.3 (+21.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -1.9 (+6.1) | 134.4 (+19.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -2.8 (+5.2) | 133.8 (+20.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -17.7 (#360) | -15.7 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.56 (#364) | -2.57 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.07 (#362) | -3.77 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.284 (#365) | 0.390 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 28.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.3% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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