Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -1000 USM +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -5.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -3.4 (+0.6) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -7.4 (-3.4) | 138.0 (-0.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -3.7 (+0.3) | 139.6 (-1.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -3.8 (+0.2) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2024 | MISS 77 – 46 USM |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MISS 89 – 72 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#86) | 1.0 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#177) | 0.06 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#148) | 0.14 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#194) | 0.521 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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