Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | MISS -100000 USM +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MISS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +31 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | MISS -22.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -20.5 (+10.5) | 148.8 (-25.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -20.8 (+10.2) | 149.7 (-26.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -23.0 (+8.0) | 149.9 (-26.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -23.0 (+8.0) | 150.6 (-27.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | MISS 71 – 67 USM |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MISS 89 – 72 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MISS | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#28) | -7.8 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#25) | -1.04 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.79 (#12) | -1.76 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#50) | 0.419 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MISS | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 11.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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